{
  "schema_version": 1,
  "title": "Synthetic 12-month default experiment",
  "disclaimer": "Entirely fictional data. Results demonstrate simulator assumptions, not validated lending performance. Demo scenarios are a separate dataset.",
  "configuration": {
    "seeds": [
      42,
      43,
      44,
      45,
      46
    ],
    "n_borrowers": 10000,
    "n_groups": 1000,
    "conditions": [
      {
        "name": "absent",
        "network_strength": 0.0
      },
      {
        "name": "moderate",
        "network_strength": 0.75
      },
      {
        "name": "strong",
        "network_strength": 1.5
      }
    ],
    "split": {
      "train": 0.6,
      "calibration": 0.2,
      "test": 0.2
    },
    "bootstrap_repetitions": 200,
    "borrower_features": [
      "leverage",
      "interest_coverage",
      "cash_buffer"
    ],
    "graph_features": [
      "relationship_count",
      "guaranteed_exposure",
      "connected_financial_stress"
    ],
    "lightgbm_parameters": {
      "n_estimators": 150,
      "learning_rate": 0.04,
      "num_leaves": 15,
      "min_child_samples": 60,
      "reg_lambda": 2.0,
      "verbosity": -1,
      "n_jobs": 2,
      "deterministic": true,
      "force_col_wise": true
    },
    "calibration": "Logistic sigmoid on clipped probability logits; fit only on calibration split"
  },
  "generating_process": {
    "observation_date": "2025-01-01",
    "outcome_window": "2025-01-02 through 2026-01-01 (simulated)",
    "formula": "P(default)=sigmoid(intercept + 1.1*financial_stress + network_strength*mean(guaranteed borrowers' observed financial_stress) + hidden_group_shock)",
    "financial_stress": "(0.85*leverage - 0.65*interest_coverage - 0.45*cash_buffer)/sqrt(0.85^2+0.65^2+0.45^2); each attribute independent standard normal",
    "intercept": "Solved per seed and condition to set mean simulated probability to 0.08; realized prevalence varies",
    "hidden_group_shock": "One independent Normal(0,0.35) draw per relationship group; excluded from predictors",
    "graph": "Each disconnected group is a directed guarantee ring with an additional outgoing chord with probability0.35 per borrower. Balances are LogNormal(10,0.7). All graph features precede outcomes.",
    "limitations": "Edges are generated randomly; this is neither causal identification nor an estimate of real default risk. Absent network effects is a negative control. Temporal generalization is not tested by the group split."
  },
  "provenance": {
    "generator": "scripts/model_experiment.py",
    "generator_sha256": "d2eb1e211f0475a177116ee159ede654cd94771046d15d954c166044b046a941",
    "versions": {
      "numpy": "2.4.6",
      "sklearn": "1.9.0",
      "lightgbm": "4.6.0"
    },
    "split_membership": "artifacts/model/split-membership.csv",
    "uncertainty": "95% percentile intervals from held-out whole-group resampling within each seed. Summary intervals average independent per-seed bootstrap draws; conditional on the five fitted runs, not population or between-training-run uncertainty.",
    "uplift": "Paired graph-enriched minus borrower-only LightGBM on identical held-out group resamples; positive improves AP/AUC, negative improves Brier/log loss."
  },
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